Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 22.30% 0.00% 0.91
1 35.30% 58.30% 1.45
2 48.20% 116.10% 1.98
3 61.20% 174.40% 2.51
4 74.10% 232.30% 3.04
5 87.00% 290.10% 3.57
6 100.00% 348.40% 4.10

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 0.91
  • % of original R0: 22.3
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.45
  • % of original R0: 35.3
  • % Increase from current: 58.3

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.98
  • % of original R0: 48.2
  • % Increase from current: 116.1

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.51
  • % of original R0: 61.2
  • % Increase from current: 174.4

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.04
  • % of original R0: 74.1
  • % Increase from current: 232.3

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.57
  • % of original R0: 87
  • % Increase from current: 290.1

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.1
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 348.4