Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.30% | 0.00% | 0.91 |
| 1 | 35.30% | 58.30% | 1.45 |
| 2 | 48.20% | 116.10% | 1.98 |
| 3 | 61.20% | 174.40% | 2.51 |
| 4 | 74.10% | 232.30% | 3.04 |
| 5 | 87.00% | 290.10% | 3.57 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 348.40% | 4.10 |
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
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